Volume 2, Edition 3
Edited by BoldColdPicker
Thursday, August 6th @ 2:50 P.M.
This was supposed to be a shorter edition of the Weather Warrior Weekly. As the Impractical Jokers would say, Wellllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll....:let's just say we had some #IsaiasMadness, #DelmarvaDelirium, & #IsaiasLastStand. Records were shattered. East Coast kicked butt. New locations come to the scene. International sites finally break into the game. A few locations likely getting their promotion to the Winter rounds. Lastly, expectations get shattered. Get ready, folks. This is going to be one of the most entertaining weeklies ever, and it's not even the end of the first week! Man. Can't wait for the Weekend League to step up to the plate.
Title Inspiration: A song from All Time Low's Don't Panic album.
Day 1's Unparalleled Anarchy
Well, has there ever been a Day 1 that was as wild as this. Don't say #MesoscaleMadness' fun and meme-able stories, or Corpus Christi, Broken Bow, stuff on Day 1. Please don't. There's no way you can say Day 1 wasn't crazy. If you are, you either weren't paying attention, or you're salty about your performance. Let's explain how crazy the day was, and why an unsuspecting location winner stole the show.
You Either Boomed, Or You Busted
Some people were on the right side of the coin, while others weren't. Outside of Jacksonville being a bust, and a non-factor, the other 4 locations played the role of "Opposite Day". This led to a surprising victory.
In the wee hours on Monday, as well as each night, yours' truly does some simulations involving locations that were picks. With 5 locations, it was super easy to make these sims, and not as time consuming. The simulations come off of NWS values (at 11:00 PM-12:00 AM ET), as well as Euro wind ensembles (in the fact of there being no shown gusts). Below are the sims for the 5 locations, from originally highest to lowest.
Projections
Charleston (Downtown), SC (CXM)
DD: 18
Gust: 51
Precip: 510
Indices: 16
Raw (1 Day): 595
2 Day (Full, 1.2x): 714
3 Day (Switch, 1.3x): 773.50
3 Day (Full, 1.4x): 833
Charleston (Airport), SC (KCHS)
DD: 16
Gust: 46
Precip: 467
Indices: 12
Raw (1 Day): 541
2 Day (Full, 1.2x): 649.20
North Myrtle Beach, SC (KCRE)
DD: 22
Gust: 68
Precip: 230
Indices: 18
Raw (1 Day): 338
2 Day (Full, 1.2x): 405.60
3 Day (Full, 1.4x): 473.20
4 Day (Full, 1.6x): 540.80
Jacksonville (Craig), FL (KCRG)
DD: 22
Gust: 35
Precip: 145
Indices: 24
Raw (1 Day): 226
Wilmington, NC (KILM)
DD: 24
Gust: 44
Precip: 91
Indices: 32
Raw (1 Day): 191
4 Day (Full, 1.3x): 248.30
5 Day (Full, 1.4x): 267.40
What Actually Happened
Charleston (Downtown), SC (CXM)
DD: 20 (+2)
Gust: 39 (-12)
Precip: 129 (-381)
Indices: 20 (+4)
Raw (1 Day): 208 (-387)
2 Day (Full, 1.075x): 223.60
3 Day (Switch, 1.3x): 270.40
3 Day (Full, 1.4x): 291.20
Charleston (Airport), SC (KCHS)
DD: 16 (Spot On)
Gust: 42 (-4)
Precip: 114 (-351)
Indices: 20 (+8)
Raw (1 Day): 192
2 Day (Full, 1.1x): 211.20
North Myrtle Beach, SC (KCRE)
DD: 20 (-2)
Gust: 53 (-15)
Precip: 238 (+8)
Indices: 18 (+18)
Raw (1 Day): 347
2 Day (Full, 1.2x): 416.40
3 Day (Full, 1.4x): 485.80
4 Day (Full, 1.6x): 555.20
Jacksonville (Craig), FL (KCRG)
DD: 29 (+7)
Gust: 28 (-7)
Precip: 23 (-122)
Indices: 38 (+14)
Raw (1 Day): 118
Wilmington, NC (KILM)
DD: 22 (-2)
Gust: 73 (+29)
Precip: 206 (+115)
Indices: 34 (+2)
Raw (1 Day): 335
4 Day (Full, 1.6x): 536.00
5 Day (Full, 1.8x): 603.00
After the day was all said and done, Wilmington, which was projected to finish last, finished 2nd fiddle to North Myrtle Beach (projected 3rd). However, multipliers played slightly better roles, and warning bonuses decided 2nd and 3rd. Charleston sites finished 3rd and 4th, while Jacksonville busted, but wasn't planning to be a contender.
Rule #958 of Weather Warrior: Switching Screws Your Scores
A lot of players must have graduated from the "Weather Warrior School of Running Away from Your Original Picks", because a lot of pick switches cost players of much better scores. A lot of players fell for the hype of Charleston, switching away from places such as Wilmington, Cape Hatteras, and North Myrtle Beach.
Little did these players know, if they already didn't, was that switching scores might have screwed up their chances at winning the day. For those unaware, switching a pick (except if it's a last day switch) is worth half the bonus of what the original lock would be. Say you made a 5-day pick for Wilmington, but fell for the Charleston hype two days later. That 3 day lock, which would be worth at least a 1.2x multiplier, would be equal to a 1.1x day multiplier.
That cost players like SwagWxChicago, ConnorWx, and a host of others throughout the week on good multipliers. A handful of these players lost out on 400, 500, 600, or even 700 point days via bailing on old picks.
This is why the recommended strategies say to not force a pick. It could cost you valuable points, as well as valuable positions. If you feel like you'll constantly switch, wait until you feel it's best to. Locks over 3-4 days are nice, and appealing for multipliers, but it's not completely worth it, if you're someone who needs to check their picks every night.
NOTE: "Weather Warrior School of Running Away from Your Original Picks" is a spoof of the "Prometheus School of Running Away from Things" saying from CinemaSins. Your founder is a "Pop Culture Junkie", mmkay?
A Blizzard Winning On A Hurricane Day? Surprising.
Isn't it ironic? Don't you think? A little too ironic? Yeah, I really do think. (Yes. I have a pop culture problem. No. I can't stop. I won't stop). Anywho, before you get bored and leave the page, let's get to the story! So, Dairy Queen Blizzard was the one who took advantage of the chaos and the shift of momentum, as the big winner was Wilmington. This was a 5-day lock, originally, which showed players why you don't switch, and just keep it and hope for the best.
At the end of the day, the switches by others gave DQB a Wilmington Maple Walnut Blizzard for the players to chew on. J. Mike Sheard also used a far out lock to finish 1-2, and get his best finish since his first win (Barrow Brigade), being the bridesmaid. Two Myrtle Beach picks scored 3rd and 4th, one by yours' truly. The other by SynopticScale2023.
All 4 players scored high, thanks to their original locks, costing the pick switchers a chance to keep up, as well as cost them valuable points.
Delmarva Delirium: Day 2 Recap
Weather Warrior's Day 2 was all about the Delmarva. This opportunity was led by many of our star players. Let's talk about what we saw, what we learned, and what is going to be used.
Allentown: More Than Just A Billy Joel Song
JRN785 laid his Broken Bow memes to rest, on Tuesday (at least temporarily). The biggest winner of Day 2 came from Allentown, PA, and it is a rare moment for the Keystone State. Pennsylvania only saw one victory last season: Williamsport (or Montoursville, if you're wanting to be more specific). It took two days for that to happen. This marked the 3rd Mount Holly site to win a non-playoff day, and the first since scgoose's win in Wilmington, DE (which also was won by Tuesday's winner, in January). Others like AschaafWX & Srmarts, from the area, did not use their home field advantage to their advantage, but were able to still finish strong from them.
The biggest culprit was the multiplier, however, it was the torrential rainfall. Allentown saw 4.92" of rain, which was among one of the highest totals. However, the 2-day lock, mixed with other factors, led the victory to him. This was able to overpower a 3-day lock from Richmond, VA and two high scores from Leonardtown, MD.
Potable Notables
Competitors drank the Weather Warrior Kool-Aid, on Tuesday, getting some excellent results. There were 21 locations used, in total. Not all were glitzy or glamorous, but some were stellar, in a sense. Let's look at some of the places of notoriety.
Richmond, VA had a strong showing by adterry, AndrewElswickWx, & SynopticScale2023. All 3 were able to use some high rain totals, and locks to very strong scores, including a runner-up and a Top 10 for the first two.
Leonardtown is all but a guarantee for next season's additions. After having just 3 picks, this week was enough to give it a chance to replace a spot on the full-time CONUS map. The place out of St. Marys County, MD had very strong days, including Keya_98, SEMichigan_WX, & ClevelandWx. They also recorded 99 Warning Bonus Points. That made it just 1 point shy of joining Wilmington NC & North Myrtle Beach in a very exclusive club.
Annapolis saw incredible numbers, as this new location also saved itself from being replaced by their local counterpart. The site out of Anne Arundel County gave vp701 a very strong 6th place day, as well as a 9th for EF Unknown
Wilmington, DE could have been coined as the steal of the day, on Tuesday. That steal led to a 12th place day for doctorCrab. Yes, 12th place might be our lowest steal in recent memory, but it was not used as much as the Top 11 scores ahead of it. No matter how you slice it, those two Mount Holly spots were picked at the right time.
Baltimore's BWI & Inner Harbor all saw very strong performances. Last year's #MesoscaleMadness runner up, WeathermanSam, led the way for Baltimore picks, while SwagWxChicago, Dry_7ine, & gkeller99 also fared just as strong.
The Epitome of Brutality
In a word, Wednesday was brutal. Easily the biggest busting of a day since 4/20/20's South Carolina brutality showcase. Before we get into the bad, let's talk about some good that came out of it. There was one person who took advantage of a cat-napping incident.
Srmarts Outsmarts Isaias Dependent Players
Sometimes the best strategy is to have no strategy at all. Srmarts used a 1-day lock to win in Florida. This was the first 1-day lock win since last year's season finale. The finale was won by JonWxMan9 in Florida. This win, was also a 1-day lock. Srmarts saw something in Fort Pierce, FL on Wednesday, and it proved to be a silent, yet deadly, killer, being the only score of the day to be eligible for a multiplier. Shame that it was a one day lock.
The Bad & The Ugly
Woof. Have you ever seen so many people get bitten in the rear by picks before? If not, then you're in for a surprise. These scores were the epitome of brutality, for Wednesday. It doesn't even need its own section.
Although faring decently, SDT scored an 89.00 pt day for San Salvador, El Salvador
OKCStormWatcher led the "Woe Is Me" picks, scoring a 84.00 pt day with Caribou.
BoldColdPicker scored a 72.00 pt day with Bangor, ME
JKPWeather scored a 72.00 pt day with Imperial, NE (ain't no Broken Bow)
Dry_7ine scored a 71.00 pt day with Augusta, ME
EF Unknown scored a 67.00 pt day with Millinocket, ME
Toastal Plain scored a 64.00 pt day with Quebec City, QC
ClimateNHBSH scored a 52.00 pt day with Trois-Rivieres, QC
RAMTurtle barely made it to 50.00 pts, with Plymouth, NH (likely being added)
vp701 scored a 46.00 pt day, with Burlington, VT
PenguinsFan87 scored a 44.00 pt day with Trenton, NJ
Ronald Martinez scored a 42.00 pt day with Metlakatla, AK
CHSStormTracker scored a 25.00 pt with for Guatemala City, Guatemala
The only people who can say they had steals were these three. WeathermanSam was lucky enough to have Isaias benefit Baie-Comeau, QC. This was good enough for a 2nd place finish. gkeller99 used an unexpected Oranjestad, Aruba pick to finish 3rd. This is the best finish all-time for a Caribbean site. San Juan and the two Virgin Island spots last year were barely used. SEMichigan_WX finished podium on the board for the 2nd straight day, scoring two points behind gkeller99's pick. His pick was for another newcomer: Enid, OK. This site benefited from the severe weather, over everyone else's busts and Srmarts' using Florida's daily 3:00 shower to his advantage, that ended up being a downpour.
Isaias Gives Weather Warrior Records & Firsts
We saw records get annihilated, as well as some firsts going down. It was that kind of system. If you missed out, you missed out big time. You could've been part of these records and samples, for Monday-Thursday.
Records Broken
22 players picked Charleston sites. This is the most for a regular season location, beating the Barrow Brigade (They thought it wouldn't happen. They were wrong). Please note that the all-time record still stands with 28 New Orleans picks. Coincidentally, this was also during a tropical system (Cristobal).
This was also a starting point for another record: The most picks in South Carolina in Weather Warrior history. If you add the 6 Myrtle Beach sites, you have 28 picks in one state. That is to believed to have tied a single-day record, as well.
Wilmington, NC (KILM) received 145 Warning Bonus Points. That is an all-time record, beating a non-sanctioned record of 93 for Ft. Lauderdale (Yours' truly), and obliterated the regular season/sanctioned record of 44 bonus points set by Marathon, FL
North Myrtle Beach, SC (KCRE) also surpassed the unsanctioned and regular season record, also scoring in the century mark: 100 points.
Charleston's two sites, Downtown & Airport (A.K.A. CXM & KCHS) also surpassed the original record, scoring 63 warning bonus points.
Jacksonville Craig also scored 30 Warning Bonus points. While that is not a Florida or location record, but it sets a record for most different locations in double digit warning pts, well at least for one day.
5 locations were selected in one day, which is the fewest in a regular season day.
Technically speaking, 4 cities were picked, which is also the fewest.
First-Timers
It can be easy to say first time pickers, with all the rookies, so let's skip that.
It can also be easy to say that switching picks caused the first half multipliers ever.
The first warning bonuses to ever get to 100 happened with Myrtle Beach, but even greater for Wilmington.
Canadian locations were also all the buzz, as the first non-US affiliated locations were selected. Notable new sites picked were all from Quebec.
Another region started seeing new picks: Latin America. Picks came from places like Guatemala City & San Salvador.
Another new first: The first non Puerto Rico or Virgin Islands pick in the Caribbean was made, as Oranjestad, Aruba was selected by gkeller99.
3 Players selected Leonardtown, MD (K2W6). This was the first cycled location to be made as a pick. Since this is a cycled location, that means it's eligible, and most likely an addition, for being a full-time location in the winter season. It'll come at the expense of 3-Day report sites that were not selected in the beta test.
For the first time in Weather Warrior, the other Jacksonville, FL site has been used. Jacksonville (Craig) is a CLI-report site that is new to our competition. This location is a permanent site.
Other new locations selected in the US include: Annapolis MD, & Dover DE. These locations will be safe from replacement for November.
Easton MD, Plymouth NH, & Seward AK also saw their first picks, as well. Two will be considered for next year. Seward, on the other hand, could be a potential gateway for more Alaska spot interest in our game.
Weekend League Update
The first match-ups have been decided for the Weekend League. Please note that the Weekend League is for players who got drafted. If you're not currently on a team, focus on the regular season, and you may be drafted in a month or so.
These match-ups on Week 1 will feature these regional battles. Good luck to all players!
Bulldogs (Central Plains Region) vs. Hawks (Central Plains Region)
Dolphins (Alaska Region) vs. Wolverines (Southwest/Central Am. Region)
Dragons (Southwest/Central Am. Region) vs. Cobras (Southwest/Central Am. Region)
Knights (Central Plains Region) vs. Gators (Central Plains Region)
Tigers (Southwest/Central Am. Region) vs. Lions (Oceanic Region)
To make picks for Weekend League, go through your profile. To any team picking in the Oceanic region, picks are due by Midnight Local Time OR Midnight ET (for Hawaii).
Cycled Locations Update
Week 2's cycled locations features some new locations that will be available for a week on the map. However, if you're brave enough, you can start picking them for Monday & beyond now, as they are currently shown on the algorithm schedule.
Next week's cycled additions will come with a boatload of British Columbia sites. Perfect for people who want to hit up some rainy season venues. There will be a good amount of NE/Mid-Atlantic sites, as well. Full list is on our algorithm page, and the new locations will be up late Sunday Night or Monday.
10 Notable Locations for next week include
Beaufort, NC (KMRH)
Easton, WA (KESW)
Escanaba, MI (KESC)
Grand Forks (AFB), ND (KRDR)
Newport, RI (KUUU)
Plymouth, MA (KPMZ)
Rehoboth Beach, DE (KDEREHOB4)
St. Petersburg (Clearwater Airport), FL (KPIE)
Tunica, MS (KUTA)
Victoria (University), BC (CWYJ)
Watkins Glen, NY (F3867)
Weather Warrior Isms
No. I'm not Jon Rothstein. I wish I was. He's a role model to me, and I love it when you can come up with little sayings, and relate them to what's currently going on. We're just going to do that in this segment, if you're new to this. Some of his, for our moments, there's a couple I made up that are inspired by the man, and it's going to be your favorite part of the weekly!
Anarchy? Nope. Just Weather Warrior
The lowest scoring location, according to projections ended up winning
Two places broke the century mark with their warning bonus points
Epitome of Brutality
OKCStormWatcher with Jacksonville, compared to the Carolina Club
22 people either being screwed over by Charleston's bust and/or pick switches of that variety. Add more for others, throughout the first 72 hours.
See more in the Wednesday story.
Latin America locations struggling with precip numbers, or having missing data. Pick at your own risk, for these locations.
Player/Location-isms (or others)
#IsaiasMadness: The story of the first half of the week
#DelmarvaDelirium: Most picks came from the Delmarva, on Tuesday.
#IsaiasLastStand: As Isaias weakened, picks in Maine and Canada proved beneficial.
Carolina Club: All but 1 pick on Monday was outside of the Carolinas
Dairy Queen Blizzard's Flavor Of The Day: Wilmington Winning Maple Walnut
JRN785: Broke the System More than Broken Bow
Srmarts: Giving Weather Warrior Players Lessons
Wilmington, NC: More Like WonByATon
Allentown, PA: More Than Just A Billy Joel Song
Fort Pierce, FL: King For The Day
Rest of the "isms" will come on Monday for the second half of the week. Same goes for "But Wait...There's More".
The Last Word
Let's leave a little meme to honor Monday's anarchy.
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